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5 pending review

Recommendation #DR-0814 · Reposition Civic Center 16:00–20:00

Source: Trend Detection (complaint surge at Civic Center, 4.2σ above norm) · Predicted impact: +71% mitigated.

High impact Confidence 82%
Why this recommendation

Civic Center is showing the strongest 7-day leading indicator we've seen this quarter — historically followed by a 71% incident spike within 5–7 days. Current officer coverage at this station is below the model's recommended threshold for the 16:00–20:00 shift.

Move from
MacArthur · Embarcadero
MacArthur over-covered by 1.4× · Embarcadero coverage stable
Move to
Civic Center / UN Plaza
Risk 87 · 38 complaints in last 24h
Personnel proposed (3)
OfficerRoleCurrent stationOverride
Officer M. Rivera
Badge 04127 · 6yr
Sworn officerMacArthur
Officer A. Chen
Badge 04211 · 4yr
Sworn officerMacArthur
Spec. D. Romero
CIS · 8yr
CISEmbarcadero
Reason code (required if edited / rejected)
Predicted outcome · with
−71% incident risk
Based on 412 historical surges (2019–2024). r² = 0.71 on 7-day lead window.
Predicted outcome · without
+71% incident risk
Past 8 of 9 surges of this magnitude preceded a station-level incident cluster within 5–7 days.
Source data
  • NIBRS · 412 historical surges
  • ELERTS · 23 reports last 90m
  • Complaint CRM · 38 in 24h
  • Fare gates 14/17/22 · tailgating +63%
  • Ridership · +9% vs. 30-day median
Recommendation generated 14:32:08 PT · model v1.4-r2 · audit ID DR-0814

Approval queue

Pending recommendations · sorted by predicted impact.

IDRecommendationWindowMixImpactConfidenceState
DR-0814
Reposition 2 officers + 1 CIS to Civic Center
16:00–20:002 Officer · 1 CISHigh82%Pending reviewOpen
DR-0815
Add fare inspector pair · Powell
18:00–19:002 Fare Insp.Medium74%Pending reviewOpen
DR-0816
Add 1 CSO at Embarcadero concourse
15:00–17:001 CSOMedium68%Pending reviewOpen
DR-0817
Pair CIS + officer · 16th St. Mission
20:00–02:001 CIS · 1 OfficerMedium71%Edit suggestedOpen
DR-0818
Hold 2 Ambassadors at 19th St. Oakland
Now → 18:002 Amb.High91%Auto-approved · active P1Open
DR-0807
Reduce coverage at MacArthur
16:00–20:00−2 OfficerLow62%Approved · 13:50 PTOpen
DR-0791
Move CIS from Embarcadero to 16th St.
09:00–13:001 CISMedium67%Rejected · personnel not availableOpen
Operations Console · Deployment Plans · WS-001 HIL workflow
All actions logged · DF-019 reason codes · audit retained 7y